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Market tops rarely announce themselves. They emerge gradually, through a combination of overly-optimistic expectations and assumptions, subtle shifts in the macro picture, and a creeping deterioration in market structure that most investors overlook until it’s too late.
Today’s market has many of the classic features of a late‑cycle advance — not yet a confirmed top, bu...
The Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is one of the most revealing yet underappreciated indicators in modern market analysis. At its core, VRP measures the gap between what the options market expects volatility to be in the future (30 days or longer) and what the market has actually delivered in realized volatility. That gap - implied min...
I'm here to debunk a claim that I've been hearing from some very knowledgeable people, but this claim is not supported by the facts. I'll get to that in a minute, but first, let's set the table.
The Talking HeadsTurn on CNBC, MSN Money, or any of the major financial outlets, and throw in Barron's magazine and the Wall Street Journal while you're at it, and imagine that...