Jamestown

Executive Summary:

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced at the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) Turkistan summit on May 15 that the Trans-Caspian Fiber-Optic Cable would become operational in the coming months, aligning with Kazakhstan’s target for the third quarter of 2026. The cable’s construction has lagged behind the physical Middle ...

Executive Summary:

On May 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is seeking to draw Belarus more deeply into the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. A Russian offensive from Belarusian territory would likely target northern Ukraine or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) eastern flank. Several indicators suggest pote...

Executive Summary:

Ukrainian drone attacks are not only affecting the situation in ever more regions and republics of the Russian Federation but also exacerbating tensions between people there and Muscovites, with each blaming the other for failing to defend against such attacks. That is the exact opposite of what many had expected and means that f...

Executive Summary:

Russia is entering a perfect storm of military setbacks, economic deterioration, public dissatisfaction, elite fragmentation, and growing fears of political instability. These conditions could ultimately threaten the durability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.  The Russian military is facing mounting manpower ch...

Executive Summary:

Ukraine’s expanding long-range drone campaign is eroding Russia’s strategic depth, bringing Russia’s major cities, industrial centers, and critical energy infrastructure within range and exposing vulnerabilities once protected by geography and distance. Growing attacks inside Russian territory have forced regions and businesses t...