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Kevin Warsh, R-Star And The AI Capex Boom
What if the neutral rate’s higher now? R-star’s an esoteric topic, but it was front and center in the macro debate during 2023, as the US economy remained resilient in the face of what, ostensibly anyway, were very restrictive monetary policy settings. The implication of a higher neutral rate is

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Is Corporate Credit A Bubble Too?
Earlier this week, I highlighted a broad measure of aggregate US corporate margins and a related metric which expresses corporate interest payments as a share of profits. Long story short, profit margins remain very high and interest burdens remain at (or near) record lows. That’s the legacy of the pandemic

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US Hiring Quickest In Nearly Two Years, Alternative Metric Shows
The US economy added the most jobs since July of 2024 in May, an alternative measure of the overall hiring impulse released on Thursday suggested. I’m referring, of course, to the Revelio Labs series. I’ll include the usual caveat and quick explainer for those unfamiliar. With no government shutdowns on

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AI Now Most-Cited Reason For Layoffs
AI is now the most-cited reason for US employers cutting human jobs in 2026. That was the main — or at least the most eye-catching — takeaway from Thursday’s Challenger, Gray & Christmas update covering May. Last month’s 97,006 announced layoffs counted as the highest May total since 2020 and

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Is History’s Most Anomalous Stock Rally Justified?
By now, a lot (most?) readers are probably tired of hearing about equities’ purportedly uncanny knack for ignoring existential geopolitical tension. Dare I belabor the point further and chance the ire of rally skeptics who spent the better part of the last two months on the sidelines? I dare say

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